By Enam Obiosio
I see the 2026 federal budget less as a celebration of reform than as a stress test of whether reform can finally translate into durable gains for households and firms. The framing by the Honourable Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr. Mohammed Idris, that the budget is designed to consolidate the gains of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda is directionally sound. Consolidation is precisely what this moment demands.
The past 31 months were defined by hard choices. Fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, and tight monetary conditions imposed real pain, but they also arrested drift and restored a measure of macro credibility. I acknowledge the early signs the government points to, improving business activity, firmer investor sentiment, easing inflation, and stronger external reserves. These are necessary conditions for recovery, but they are not sufficient outcomes on their own.
Where the 2026 budget must be judged is execution. The credibility gap Nigerians feel is not about intent; it is about delivery at scale and at speed. Social interventions cited by the minister, including the student loan scheme managed by NELFUND, the Presidential CNG initiative, and youth programmes such as LEEP, the Jubilee Fellows Programme, and 3MTT, matter only if they are funded predictably and implemented transparently. The same applies to food security plans anchored on recapitalising the Bank of Agriculture and expanding mechanisation.
On infrastructure, flagship projects like the Coastal Highway, the Sokoto–Badagry corridor, the AKK Gas Pipeline, and new rail investments can lower costs and bind markets, but only if procurement discipline and capital releases keep pace with ambition. Security improvements, including recent rescues in Kebbi and Niger States, must be sustained through better recruitment, equipment, and coordination.
Finally, communication is policy. I agree with the minister that trust depends on clarity. In 2026, Nigerians will judge the budget not by speeches but by whether reforms deliver jobs, lower costs, and safer communities. Consolidation year must mean results year.
