For the first time in years, the macroeconomic tide is beginning to turn in our favor. The latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) from the World Bank, aptly titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” paints a cautiously optimistic picture of an economy slowly finding its balance after years of volatility.
We have reasons to be encouraged. The numbers tell a story of gradual stabilization and resilience: economic growth accelerated to 3.9% in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5% in the same period last year. Non-oil sectors-particularly services and manufacturing-are driving this expansion, while improvements in oil output and agriculture have further strengthened momentum. Our external reserves now exceed $42 billion, and for the first time in over a decade, public debt is projected to decline-from 42.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 to 39.8% in 2025. These are not small feats. They reflect hard choices, disciplined fiscal management, and reforms that are beginning to pay off.
Yet, as the World Bank rightly notes, macroeconomic stability is not an end in itself-it is a means to human progress. The true test of reform lies not in ratios and percentages, but in the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians. On that front, we are not there yet.
We cannot ignore the stark realities confronting millions of households. Food inflation remains unrelenting, eroding incomes and dignity alike. A basic food basket has risen fivefold since 2019, and for families who spend 70% of their income on food, every price surge deepens the struggle to survive. The gap between policy success and public wellbeing remains far too wide.
We must therefore confront an uncomfortable truth: while Nigeria is winning the macroeconomic battle, we are yet to win the microeconomic war-the one that touches the kitchen tables, the market stalls, and the small farms that feed this nation. The challenge now is to bring the gains of reform home, where they truly matter.
To achieve this, three priorities stand out: First, we must tackle food inflation at its root. It is not enough to manage prices through ad-hoc import waivers or border closures. We need structural solutions-freer trade, better logistics, secure farmlands, improved access to seeds and inputs, and investment in power, transport, storage, and cold-chain infrastructure. Nigeria cannot claim to have achieved reform success while the average citizen still struggles to afford bread and rice.
Second, we must make public spending work for people. Fiscal transparency and accountability must move from slogans to systems. The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) deductions must reflect discipline, fairness, and development priorities. Every naira saved through reform should find its way into classrooms, clinics, and roads-not into waste or opacity. A national fiscal pact-anchored on efficiency and human capital-should be the new frontier of governance reform.
Third, and perhaps most urgently, we must institutionalize social protection. Cash transfers should not be viewed as charity but as investment in national stability. Building a reliable, shock-responsive safety net-funded domestically, not merely through donor goodwill-is vital for protecting the ultra-poor and buffering households from crises.
We agree with Mathew Verghis, the World Bank’s Country Director for Nigeria: “Macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians-especially the poor and vulnerable.” This statement should guide every economic decision going forward.
The outlook, according to the NDU, remains modestly positive. Growth could climb to 4.4% by 2027, driven by services, agriculture, and non-oil industries. Inflation may gradually ease-but only if we sustain discipline in monetary and fiscal policies. This demands political will. It demands that reform fatigue does not set in, and that the temptation of populism does not derail progress.
We therefore call on the government to stay the course-but also to humanize the course. Let us measure success not by how much we grow, but by how much that growth reduces hunger, creates jobs, and restores hope. Let us ensure that policy is no longer distant from people.
Nigeria is finally on the move again. The fundamentals are improving, the direction is right, and the opportunities are within reach. But now is the time for the next bold step-turning economic momentum into shared prosperity.
