By Majeed Salaam
Nigeria’s fiscal outlook showed significant improvement in 2024, as the federal government’s total revenue inflow surged by 68.1% to N20.98 trillion, up from N12.48 trillion in 2023, according to the Budget Office of the Federation’s Q4 2024 Budget Implementation Report.
Despite the strong growth, the report revealed that actual collections fell N4.89 trillion short – about 18.9% below the annual revenue target of N25.87 trillion set in the 2024 budget.
“Total revenue inflow of the federal government stood at N20.98 trillion at the end of December 2024,” the Budget Office stated in the report released this week.
Non-Oil Revenue Leads the Charge
The report highlighted a remarkable rise in non-oil revenue, which grew by N5.29 trillion (48.9%) to N16.09 trillion in 2024 – surpassing the annual projection of N10.81 trillion.
The impressive performance was driven by strong inflows from company income tax (CIT), value added tax (VAT), electronic money transfer levy (EMTL), and customs duties – all of which benefited from improved collection efficiency and economic activities.
Oil Revenue Still Below Target
Conversely, gross oil revenue stood at N15.07 trillion, falling N4.93 trillion (24.6%) short of the N19.99 trillion target in the 2024 budget.
While the figure represents a substantial 80.8% increase compared to N8.35 trillion earned in 2023, the Budget Office noted that output fluctuations, pricing volatility, and crude theft continued to impact revenue performance in the sector.
Trade Performance Remains Strong
The report also provided insights into Nigeria’s external trade, which hit N36.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 68.3% increase from N21.75 billion recorded in the same quarter of 2023, and 2.2% higher than N35.82 billion in Q3 2024.
Exports accounted for 54.7% of total trade, valued at N20.01 billion, representing a 57.7% rise from N12.69 billion in Q4 2023, although it slightly dipped by 2.6% compared to N20.54 billion recorded in the preceding quarter.
Reforms and Revenue Mobilisation Efforts Paying Off
Analysts say the surge in non-oil revenue highlights the federal government’s ongoing reforms in tax administration and digital revenue mobilisation, reflecting gradual diversification from oil dependency.
With a clearer revenue picture and higher trade volumes, fiscal watchers believe the government’s 2025 budget could benefit from a stronger non-oil base – provided that reforms continue to strengthen compliance, reduce leakages, and sustain momentum in digital tax collection.
