REFORM TALKS with Enam Obiosio
Now, I would not subscribe to the easy cynicism that often defines public discourse around Nigeria’s economy. It is convenient to dismiss reforms, to question intent, and to assume that nothing works. But I also understand that serious economic transitions are rarely loud or theatrical. They are technical, incremental, and often misunderstood in their early stages. What I see today, looking closely at the signals coming out of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is not perfection, but a deliberate and structured economic reset that deserves acknowledgement.
When I hear Sidi Hakama, Acting Director of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations at CBN, state that headline inflation has declined from 34.8 percent in late 2024 to 15.06 percent by February 2026, I do not treat it as a routine statistic. I understand what it means. Inflation at that level is not just a number, it is a destabilising force that erodes purchasing power, distorts investment decisions and deepens uncertainty. Cutting it by more than half within that timeframe signals policy direction, discipline and coordination. It tells me that monetary tightening, however painful, is beginning to achieve its core objective.
I also pay attention to the external side of the economy. The movement of Nigeria’s foreign reserves from less than $US10 billion to $US50.45 billion is not a trivial development. It is a structural shift. Reserves at that level provide a buffer against external shocks, support currency stability and, more importantly, signal credibility to global investors. In a world where capital is increasingly selective, credibility is currency.
When Hakama notes that capital inflows increased by nearly 200 percent between 2023 and 2025, I interpret that as a vote of confidence, not in rhetoric, but in policy direction. Capital does not respond to speeches. It responds to clarity, transparency and predictability. That surge suggests that investors are beginning to see Nigeria not as an opaque and high-risk market, but as one undergoing measurable reform.
At the centre of this shift is Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of CBN, whose approach to monetary policy reflects a clear departure from ambiguity. I have observed that one of the most consequential decisions under his leadership is the move towards a more transparent foreign exchange (FX) regime. For years, Nigeria’s FX market was defined by fragmentation, opacity and multiple pricing windows that created distortions and encouraged arbitrage.
The introduction of a new FX manual that removes restrictive capital controls and simplifies trade and investment procedures is not cosmetic. It addresses the core dysfunctions that have historically discouraged participation in Nigeria’s markets. Increased liquidity in the FX market is not just about exchange rates, it is about restoring trust in the system.
I consider the transition to an inflation-targeting framework even more significant. This is not just a technical adjustment; it is a philosophical shift. A forward-looking, rules-based monetary policy system anchored on price stability changes how markets behave. It shapes expectations. It reduces uncertainty. It signals that policy will no longer be reactive, but structured and predictable.
Indeed, “This represents a significant shift toward a forward-looking, rules-based monetary policy system anchored in long-term price stability. It will help shape market expectations and cushion the economy from shocks,” I see a central bank attempting to institutionalise discipline. That matters. Economies do not grow sustainably on discretion; they grow on credible frameworks.
I am also attentive to developments in the banking sector. The recapitalisation exercise, with 33 banks already meeting new capital requirements and about 28 percent of investments coming from foreign sources, is not just a compliance exercise. It is a signal of system strength. A well-capitalised banking sector is essential for credit expansion, financial stability and economic growth. Foreign participation in that process further reinforces the narrative of renewed confidence.
The recognition of the CBN with the Central Bank of the Year 2026 Award is not, in my view, a public relations milestone. It is external validation that the reforms are being noticed beyond Nigeria’s borders. In global finance, perception and credibility are intertwined. Recognition of that nature feeds directly into investor sentiment.
Yet, I am not oblivious to the concerns raised by stakeholders. Nnanyelugo Onyemelukwe makes a valid point when he warns that high interest rates could undermine these gains. I agree that a Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 26.5 percent, even after a reduction from 27.0 percent, remains high and constrains access to credit.
“Although the MPR was recently reduced from 27.0 percent to 26.5 percent, borrowing costs remain high. Interest rates need to reach single digits to improve access to credit and boost productivity and gross domestic product (GDP),” he said.
That concern is legitimate. But for the economists who also understand sequencing, you do not aggressively lower interest rates in an environment where inflation has only just begun to moderate. Doing so prematurely risks reversing gains. According to them, monetary policy is not about comfort, it is about calibration. The path to single-digit interest rates must be earned through sustained stability, not forced through premature easing.
This is where I also take a firm position. I believe the current trajectory of reforms, anchored by the federal government and executed through the CBN, reflects a seriousness that has often been missing in previous cycles. The emphasis on transparency, the willingness to confront distortions and the commitment to institutional frameworks suggest that this is not a cosmetic reset, but a structural one.
I also recognise that economic reforms of this nature are inherently uncomfortable. They disrupt entrenched interests, expose inefficiencies and impose short-term costs. But I reject the notion that discomfort invalidates direction. In fact, in many cases, it validates it.
What matters to me is consistency. If the federal government sustains this reform momentum, aligns fiscal policy with monetary discipline and continues to prioritise transparency, the gains we are beginning to see will consolidate. Inflation will stabilise further. Interest rates will gradually decline. Investment will deepen. Growth will become more inclusive.
I am not arguing that the work is done. It is not. Structural challenges remain, particularly in infrastructure, productivity and fiscal management. But I am arguing that the direction is now clearer than it has been in years.
For too long, Nigeria’s economic narrative has been defined by volatility and uncertainty. What I see now is an attempt to replace that narrative with one of stability, credibility and reform-driven growth. I choose to acknowledge that shift. Not because it is perfect, but because it is real.
