By Majeed Salaam
Nigeria’s inflation rate showed signs of moderation in January 2026, easing slightly to 15.1 percent from 15.15 percent in December 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The marginal decline signals a slowdown in price pressures as the new year begins.
The NBS Consumer Price Index report noted that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 percent recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, the inflation rate fell by 2.88 percent, compared to an increase of 0.54 percent in December 2025, indicating a slowdown in the rate of increase in average prices.
Food inflation, a major contributor to overall price movements, recorded a substantial slowdown. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation dropped to 8.89 percent in January 2026, down sharply from 29.63 percent in December 2025. Month-on-month, food prices fell by 6.02 percent, in contrast to a decline of 0.36 percent in the previous month. The NBS attributed the reduction to falling average prices of staples and essential commodities, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tuber, and cowpeas.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate ended January 2026 at 20.29 percent, significantly lower than the 38.47 percent recorded in January 2025. The report highlighted regional variations in price movements. Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 19.84 percent, followed by Benue at 18.38 percent and Adamawa at 17.29 percent. Ebonyi (1.69 percent), Abia (3.23 percent), and Imo (3.74 percent) posted the slowest increases.
Month-on-month changes showed that Imo (-1.26 percent), Akwa Ibom (-2.21 percent), and Zamfara (-2.96 percent) recorded the highest food inflation declines, while Yobe (-11.88 percent), Nasarawa (-9.06 percent), and Sokoto (-8.31 percent) experienced the most significant reductions, reflecting localized shifts in food supply and market conditions.
Analysts suggest that the January figures offer cautious optimism for consumers and policymakers. The easing of both headline and food inflation could provide temporary relief for households and may signal improving price stability if trends continue in the coming months.
While the decline in food prices is notable, experts warn that sustained attention to agricultural production, supply chains, and import costs will be necessary to maintain stability. The government and policymakers face the challenge of ensuring that these gains translate into lasting relief for Nigerian households, particularly for low-income earners whose budgets are heavily influenced by food prices.
The January report provides a benchmark for monitoring inflation in 2026. With food prices slowing and the overall headline inflation marginally down, there is potential for more predictable economic conditions, allowing businesses and households to plan with greater certainty. The coming months will test whether these early signs of moderation will persist throughout the year.
