REFORM TALKS with Enam Obiosio
I sometimes think that the real story of Nigeria’s economy is told not in the grand policy statements that dominate the headlines, but in the quiet shifts that most citizens do not notice until the effects begin to show up in their lives. Recently, as I listened to the remarks delivered on behalf of Emem Usoro, Deputy Governor of Operations at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), I found myself reflecting on how much has changed, how much still feels fragile, and how much responsibility rests on institutions that Nigerians have never fully trusted. Her words came during the annual CBN seminar for finance correspondents and business editors in Lagos, a place where the country’s monetary guardians usually speak a language that often feels distant from the concerns of the everyday person. Yet something about her message felt different.
She pointed out that inflation has dropped to 16.05 percent, the exchange rate has steadied below 1500 naira to the dollar, and external reserves have risen beyond 46 billion dollars, enough for more than ten months of import cover. When I heard those figures, I paused. For months, we spoke as if the naira had reached a point of no return. We treated inflation as a storm that would not pass. We described the economy with a kind of fatalism that hinted at national exhaustion. Now, with these indicators shifting, I feel a mix of relief and guarded curiosity. I ask myself: what exactly changed, and why are these improvements happening now?
Usoro traced much of the progress to the reforms that began in September 2023 under CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso. She described what the economic environment looked like at the time, and I remember those days clearly. Inflation was climbing like a wild vine, the naira was tumbling under the weight of forex scarcity, and the country was carrying enormous FX backlogs while depending on Ways and Means financing as if it were a casual overdraft. Every part of the financial system felt pressure. Ordinary Nigerians felt it in soaring food prices, collapsing purchasing power, and the quiet desperation that creeps into conversations about school fees, rent, and fuel.
According to Usoro, the bank responded with orthodox monetary policies, stronger governance, a clearer sense of direction, and the launch of a bank recapitalisation programme that had been debated for years but never implemented with genuine resolve. Hearing her speak about transparency, compliance, and discipline almost made me smile. These are words that Nigerians have heard from successive economic managers, often with little to show for them. Yet this time, the outcomes seem to be aligning with the rhetoric. I do not know if this marks a permanent shift or a temporary reprieve, but I cannot deny that something real is happening.
Still, as someone who observes policy not just through statistics but through lived experience, I feel compelled to look beyond the glowing numbers. I know too well that stabilised indicators do not automatically translate into improved living conditions. For many Nigerians, the economy remains a daily struggle. Prices are not falling fast enough to create relief. Salaries are not catching up with inflation. The informal sector is still gasping. And while lending rates may be adjusting, the reality is that credit remains out of reach for most small businesses.
This is why one section of Usoro’s remarks stayed with me. She stressed that while progress has been made, far more work is needed to strengthen the macroeconomic fundamentals and raise the standard of living. The honesty in that admission mattered to me. For once, a senior official acknowledged that macroeconomic stability does not mean the economic crisis is over. It only means we have caught our breath.
She also spoke about the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. I have long believed that Nigeria suffers not from a lack of policies, but from the absence of coherence among the institutions that implement them. Too often, the central bank is working on one track while the fiscal authorities pull in another direction. The seminar theme, which focused on aligning monetary and fiscal policies for a robust financial system, felt like an overdue conversation. We cannot pretend that the central bank can stabilise the economy alone. Neither can the finance ministry pull off a miracle without the support of monetary tools. Nigeria needs these institutions to speak to one another, listen to one another, and work with a single national purpose.
Another part of the conversation came from development economist Ken Ife, who urged the CBN to strengthen the Loan to Deposit Ratio policy. His argument was simple: banks cannot keep making easy profits from low risk investments while the productive sectors remain starved of credit. I nodded when I heard this. I have seen too many Nigerian entrepreneurs with brilliant ideas crumble under the weight of a financial system that prefers buying government securities to lending to real businesses. When Ife said that enhanced liquidity to productive sectors is essential for sustaining recovery, he was stating a truth that cannot be ignored. If lending does not improve, the so called recovery will exist only on paper.
Ife also highlighted the steady improvement in foreign exchange inflows, driven by the rerouting of NNPC revenues through the CBN, increased crude production, and refined product exports. I found it interesting how he connected these developments to naira stability. For months, Nigerians argued about what exactly was weakening the currency. Some blamed speculation, others blamed policy confusion, and others blamed sabotage. Ife’s explanation reminds me that currency stability is not a spiritual event. It is tied to real factors like export earnings, remittances, investment inflows, and confidence. When these strengthen, the naira breathes easier.
He praised the new FX code for increasing transparency and attracting foreign portfolio investors, diaspora remittances, and export proceeds. Whenever transparency increases, markets tend to respond with confidence. Ife underscored that monetary policy decisions, especially the Monetary Policy Rate, must be guided by economic data rather than political pressure. I found that refreshing. Nigeria has a long history of using monetary policy to solve fiscal problems, often with disastrous consequences. A central bank that returns to its core mandate is perhaps the best gift the financial system can receive.
Yet, even as I consider the arguments from both Usoro and Ife, I cannot ignore my own skepticism. Nigeria has been here before. We have celebrated moments of stability only to slip into deeper crisis months later. We have applauded reforms that later turned out to be too timid or too incomplete to change the structure of the economy. And we have seen leaders who speak boldly but act slowly. So I ask myself whether this time is truly different.
What I find reassuring, however, is that the reforms appear more data driven, more structured, and more closely aligned with a long term vision. The commitment to communication also feels stronger. Usoro emphasised the media’s role in helping Nigerians understand policies. I agree completely. Without clear communication, reforms remain abstract. People will assume the government is hiding something. Distrust will grow. Confidence, which is crucial for any monetary system, will weaken.
As I reflect on the entire seminar, I realise the real challenge lies ahead. Stabilising inflation is one thing. Sustaining that stability is another. Strengthening the naira is one thing. Ensuring that strength is not wiped out by political decisions is another. Expanding credit to the productive sector is one thing. Keeping banks accountable for real sector lending is another. Nigeria needs endurance. Nigeria needs discipline. Nigeria needs leadership that can resist the temptation of shortcuts.
In this moment, I find myself cautiously optimistic. The numbers are improving. The tone from the CBN is clearer. The coordination between agencies is slowly tightening. But optimism must be accompanied by vigilance. Nigerians cannot afford to relax simply because inflation has fallen or because reserves have risen. We must insist that the reforms continue, that transparency is maintained, that fiscal discipline is not abandoned, and that policies do not shift with political tides.
If I were to summarise what I feel right now, I would say this: the central bank is moving in the right direction, but the journey is far from over. And if Nigeria is truly committed to building a robust financial system, then the improvements we see today must not be treated as an endpoint. They must be treated as a beginning.
