We welcome the latest inflation numbers with cautious relief, but we refuse to mistake early progress for lasting stability. The fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics, which places headline inflation at 16.05 percent and food inflation at 13.12 percent for October 2025, marks the seventh consecutive month of cooling prices. For an economy that has endured months of relentless cost surges, this slowdown offers a moment to breathe. Yet, as the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has rightly warned, this progress sits on a fragile foundation that could easily crack if we let our guard down.
We believe the LCCI is correct to highlight the significance of this shift. Softer food prices, a firmer naira, and better harvest outcomes are helping to ease the burden on households and businesses. Any Nigerian who has spent time in markets over the past year knows how punishing the food basket has been. When Dr. Chinyere Almona, Director-General (DG) of LCCI, calls it a glimmer of stability, we know she is choosing her words carefully. It is a glimmer, not a sunrise.
The broader trend looks encouraging, but the monthly numbers tell a story that demands attention. Month on month inflation climbed to 0.93 percent in October, up from 0.72 percent in September. This is not a trivial bump. It is a warning signal that immediate price pressures are still active, particularly in food, which carries the heaviest weight in Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index.
We must confront this reality with sincerity. The national averages mask sharp state level disparities. Some states remain trapped in elevated food inflation because of supply chain disruptions, insecurity along transport corridors, or local market distortions. While the headline numbers suggest we are moving in the right direction, many communities still live inside pockets of acute hardship. We cannot pretend that seven months of easing inflation wipes away the experience of families who continue to spend most of their income on feeding alone.
The LCCI is right to insist that this is the moment for policymakers to act with determination. We agree completely. If reforms that strengthened the currency and improved harvest outcomes helped bring inflation down, then sustained reforms will be required to keep it down. Nigeria has a troubling history of experiencing brief windows of improvement followed by long stretches of reversal because the country failed to follow through. We cannot afford that cycle again.
Food security must be front and center. The components of the food basket remain the greatest source of volatility. Until Nigeria can reliably grow, store, move, and distribute food without chronic disruptions, inflation will remain vulnerable to shocks. A nation that still loses vast quantities of produce between farms and urban centers cannot expect stable prices. This is why decisive investments in storage systems, rural roads, crop protection, and security around farmlands are non-negotiable. Any plan that ignores these issues will be nothing more than cosmetic policy.
The LCCI’s call for bold foreign exchange reforms is another point we strongly support. A stronger and more predictable currency is essential for import dependent sectors and for business planning. When the naira becomes more stable, businesses can price goods with greater certainty, and this helps reduce the kind of speculative markups that worsen inflation. Policymakers must continue cleaning up the FX market, promoting transparency, and ensuring that the reforms are insulated from political interference.
We also believe the private sector has a responsibility in this moment. The LCCI has encouraged businesses to use this emerging stability to reinvest, expand production, and create jobs. We share this view. While government policy shapes the macro environment, economic transformation requires private investment to translate stability into growth. If businesses hesitate, the recovery will lose momentum. If they respond with confidence, the economy can gain the kind of traction that sustains lower inflation.
Nigeria stands at a turning point. We can either treat easing inflation as an invitation to relax, or we can treat it as a signal to push harder for structural reforms. We prefer the latter approach. The LCCI has outlined the path clearly: strengthen food systems, support FX reforms, remove supply chain bottlenecks, and rally businesses to invest in production. If we act together with discipline, we can convert these early wins into lasting resilience.
