By Anita Dennis
Nigeria has experienced nearly 30 positive macroeconomic shifts since May 2023, reflecting a series of strategic reforms aimed at stabilising the economy and expanding its growth potential, according to Professor of Practice at James Hope University, Biodun Adedipe.
Speaking at the investiture of the new President of the National Institute of Credit Administration (NICA), Markie Idowu, in Lagos, Adedipe described the reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration as transformative. He highlighted the discontinuation of fuel subsidies as a landmark fiscal reset.
“The decision to discontinue fuel subsidy payments has freed an estimated N37 trillion, perhaps the most significant fiscal reset in decades,” Mr. Adedipe said. “This presents a rare opportunity to reposition the economy through strategic credit expansion.”
Mr. Adedipe noted that the subsidy removal was more than a fiscal adjustment; it represented a structural pivot capable of redefining Nigeria’s development trajectory. He explained that, between December 2021, when the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) was enacted, and mid-2023, the country effectively postponed critical reforms. Their eventual implementation has now prevented continued expenditure that could have strained public finances.
“With an estimated N37 trillion saved from not continuing with oil subsidy, the fiscal space created is substantial,” he said, stressing that the challenge lies in translating this relief into productive economic transformation.
The economist outlined other major reform initiatives, including exchange rate unification and executive orders directing hydrocarbon revenues into the Federation Account, which together form the 30 macroeconomic shifts he identified since May 2023. One notable change ensures a larger portion of oil and gas proceeds flows into the Federation Account rather than remaining with the national oil company, a move expected to improve liquidity across all levels of government.
However, Mr. Adedipe cautioned that fiscal savings alone do not guarantee growth. He argued that credit must serve as the transmission mechanism to convert reform into broad-based development. “Hardly any country has overcome deficits in energy, manufacturing, infrastructure or housing without a significant role for credit,” he said.
He identified three core channels where credit is indispensable: production, enabling businesses to invest and expand output; consumption, supporting households and government spending; and trade, linking production with consumption efficiently.
Mr. Adedipe stressed that economic transformation requires moving beyond creating individual wealth toward broad-based job creation. Citing research across 121 developing countries, he referenced the concept of a credit-to-GDP tipping point of 68 percent, beyond which excessive credit expansion could trigger systemic crises. Nigeria, he noted, currently sits far below that threshold, averaging 12.78 percent between 2013 and 2024.
“That gap represents opportunity,” he said. “Nigeria has ample space to deepen credit markets without breaching stability limits.” However, he warned that expanding credit without strengthening financial institutions could create fragility, highlighting the need for regulatory consistency and improved risk assessment frameworks.
Differentiating between incremental reform and systemic transformation, Mr. Adedipe argued that true transformation requires restructuring economic architecture toward higher efficiency. He linked this imperative to Nigeria’s aspiration of becoming a $1 trillion economy, noting that nonlinear strategies and democratised, accessible credit are essential for progress.
Representing the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Commissioner for Energy and Mineral Resources, Biodun Ogunleye, reaffirmed the state’s commitment to supporting functional bodies such as NICA in deepening credit governance, enhancing risk management, and promoting ethical credit practices.
Sanwo-Olu said: “Responsible credit can empower individuals, businesses, and communities. The investiture of NICA President Markie Idowu and the conferment of fellowships is proof of progress in Nigeria’s economic journey.” He added that the discussion on the role of credit speaks directly to national development, noting that it fuels enterprise, drives expansion, strengthens customer confidence, underpins productivity, and supports infrastructure development.
The Governor further commended Mr. Adedipe’s presentation, emphasising its focus on strong credit culture, MSME financing, digital financial inclusion, and strategic public-private partnerships.
