Nigeria closed 2025 on a firmer economic footing, posting one of its strongest quarterly growth performances in recent years. New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.07 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. The figure marks a marginal acceleration from the 3.98 percent recorded in the third quarter (Q3) and an improvement over the 3.76 percent posted in the corresponding period of 2024. Enam Obiosio highlights the data from the bureau.
Beyond the headline number, the composition of growth offers insight into a reform programme that appears to be gaining traction. Expansion was recorded across agriculture, industry and services, suggesting that the current upswing is not confined to a narrow segment of the economy. In nominal terms, GDP was valued at N122.81 trillion during the quarter, while real GDP stood at N63.97 trillion, reflecting stronger output under stabilising macroeconomic conditions.
For policymakers, the significance of the 4.07 percent growth rate lies in both timing and structure. It represents one of the few occasions in the past decade, outside the immediate rebound from the COVID-19 downturn, that quarterly growth has exceeded 4 percent. It also comes amid an extensive reform agenda designed to restore fiscal discipline, improve foreign exchange management and re-anchor investor confidence.
Broad-based sector expansion
The Q4 performance was underpinned by measurable gains across the three principal sectors of the economy.
Agriculture grew by 4.00 percent, a marked improvement from the 2.54 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2024. The sector accounted for 28.66 percent of real GDP, reinforcing its structural importance. Officials attribute the rebound to improved security in key food-producing regions, better access to farm inputs and targeted interventions aimed at strengthening value chains. While structural constraints remain, the stronger output suggests that policy support is beginning to yield quantifiable results.
Industry expanded by 3.88 percent, compared to 2.49 percent a year earlier, contributing 15.42 percent to real GDP. The sector’s recovery reflects incremental gains in manufacturing and other production activities, supported by improved foreign exchange availability and ongoing energy sector adjustments. Although average daily oil production dipped to 1.58 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.64 million barrels in the preceding quarter, non-oil industrial activities helped sustain overall momentum.
Services, which remain the largest driver of the Nigerian economy, grew by 4.15 percent and accounted for 55.92 percent of real GDP. Though slightly below the 4.75 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024, the sector maintained its dominant position. Banking, telecommunications, trade and technology-enabled services continued to expand, reinforcing Nigeria’s gradual shift toward a more service-oriented economic structure.
The scale of services’ contribution underscores a structural reality. Nigeria’s growth story is increasingly tied to the resilience of its financial system, digital economy and consumer-facing industries. This shift carries implications for employment patterns, investment flows and fiscal revenues.
Non-oil dominance and structural signals
One of the most striking elements of the fourth-quarter data is the overwhelming contribution of the non-oil sector. According to the NBS, non-oil activities accounted for 97.13 percent of total GDP during the quarter, while oil contributed just 2.87 per cent.
This distribution signals a continuing diversification of output, even if oil remains significant for external earnings and fiscal receipts. The modest decline in crude production did not derail overall growth, suggesting that the broader economy is becoming less directly sensitive to short-term fluctuations in oil volumes.
For reform advocates, this shift reinforces the case for deepening structural adjustments that prioritise revenue mobilisation, productivity and export competitiveness outside hydrocarbons. It also highlights the importance of strengthening domestic value chains, improving logistics and enhancing regulatory coherence.
Full-year trajectory and policy interpretation
On a full-year basis, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.87 percent in 2025, up from 3.38 percent in 2024. The steady upward movement across quarters reflects what economic managers describe as improved policy coordination and tighter macroeconomic management.
Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, characterised the Q4 outcome as evidence that reforms are beginning to deliver measurable gains. He noted that the performance builds on the 4.23 percent growth recorded in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 and demonstrates strengthening macroeconomic stability.
According to him, the improvement is not attributable to a single driver. Rather, it reflects incremental progress across sectors, supported by enhanced fiscal discipline, greater transparency and closer collaboration among monetary and fiscal authorities. He emphasised that reforms aimed at restoring confidence in public finance and foreign exchange management are central to sustaining the trajectory.
The message to investors, domestic and international, is clear. A growth rate above 4 percent signals renewed dynamism, particularly when accompanied by evidence of structural broadening. It suggests an economy that, while still confronting inflationary pressures and cost-of-living challenges, is expanding on a wider base.
Implications for households and businesses
Macroeconomic growth does not immediately resolve the pressures faced by households. Inflation and real income constraints remain salient concerns. However, sustained expansion across agriculture, industry and services creates conditions for job creation, improved business turnover and higher government revenues.
For businesses, a broad-based upswing enhances planning visibility. Manufacturing firms benefit from more predictable foreign exchange access. Farmers gain from improved security and policy support. Service providers operate within a system that is gradually stabilising. Over time, these dynamics can reinforce one another, generating cumulative gains.
For government, stronger nominal GDP expands the tax base and enhances fiscal capacity. This can translate into greater investment in infrastructure, social programmes and institutional reform, provided expenditure discipline is maintained.
The reform inflection point
The crossing of the 4 percent threshold in successive quarters marks a symbolic milestone. It does not imply that structural challenges have been resolved, nor does it eliminate vulnerability to external shocks. Yet it signals an inflection point in the reform narrative.
Sustaining momentum will depend on consolidating macroeconomic stability, addressing inflation and ensuring that growth translates into tangible welfare improvements. It will also require maintaining policy coherence and resisting reversals that could undermine investor confidence.
For now, the fourth-quarter data offer cautious validation of the reform path. Growth is broad-based. The non-oil sector is dominant. Sectoral contributions are balanced. Fiscal and monetary coordination appears firmer.
