By Kingsley Benson
The Nigerian Economic Society (NES) has called for a shift in the country’s economic priorities from macroeconomic stabilisation to production, productive employment and improved household incomes, arguing that stronger economic indicators will mean little if they do not translate into better living conditions.
The call is contained in the Presidential Address delivered by the NES President and Chairman of its Governing Council, Dr. Baba Y. Musa, at the Society’s 67th Annual Conference in Abuja on September 8, 2026.
Titled ‘Nigeria’s Next Economic Frontier: Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Jobs, Production and Shared Prosperity’, the paper acknowledges the progress made through recent economic reforms but argues that stabilisation should be treated as a platform rather than an end in itself.
According to Dr. Musa, reforms including petrol subsidy reform, changes to the foreign exchange framework, tax reforms and a more disciplined monetary policy have strengthened the foundation for macroeconomic stability.
The paper cited a decline in headline inflation from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 15.15 percent in December 2025, while food inflation fell from 39.83 percent to 10.84 percent over the same period. It also reported that gross external reserves rose to about $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026, while net reserves stood at $34.80 billion at the end of 2025, compared with $3.99 billion at the end of 2023.
However, the NES president said these improvements had not yet translated sufficiently into household welfare.
The paper identified what it described as a disconnect between economic growth, employment and household welfare. It noted that only about 17 percent of Nigerian workers hold formal wage jobs, while much of the workforce remains engaged in informal and low-productivity activities. It also reported that poverty rose from about 56 percent in 2023 to 63 percent in 2025, equivalent to roughly 140 million people, even as inflation moderated.
Dr. Musa said the distinction between falling inflation and falling prices was particularly important. While disinflation means prices are increasing more slowly, it does not reverse previous increases or automatically restore lost purchasing power.
For households, the paper said the adjustment period had brought pressure through food, transport, energy and other essential costs. Businesses, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), also faced higher input and financing costs, weaker consumer demand and pressure on margins.
The NES therefore proposed a Jobs and Production Compact as the next phase of the economic reform agenda. The proposed framework would bring together the federal government, state governments, the private sector, labour and citizens around eight pillars designed to improve productive employment and economic opportunity.
Among the priorities are employment-intensive sectors, productivity in SMEs and the informal economy, human capital and skills development, industrial and export expansion, social protection, sub-national development, security for productive peace and state-led agricultural transformation.
Agriculture occupies a central position in the proposal because of its large employment base and relatively low productivity. The paper said agriculture, trade and manufacturing account for 52 percent of national output and employ about 59 million people, compared with roughly 30 percent of output and 1.2 million workers across real estate, information and communication, oil and mining, and finance.
The NES argues that improving productivity in agriculture could have significant employment and export effects. Its policy demonstration estimates that stronger agricultural and livestock growth could generate approximately nine million jobs by 2030, with about half created outside farming through processing, aggregation, logistics, wholesale, retail and export services. The paper stresses that these figures are policy calculations based on its employment assumptions, rather than an official forecast.
The proposal also places technology and youth employment within the economic transition. An Open Digital Area, comprising six zonal hubs and 18 state nodes, is proposed to connect young Nigerians to skills, enterprise and investment opportunities. The target is five million credentialed young people and two million linked jobs by 2030.
For accountability, the NES proposed a Shared Prosperity Dashboard, a Rural Safety Index, a Labour Market Information System and a Compact Delivery Authority. These mechanisms are intended to track employment, productivity, household welfare and implementation at regular intervals rather than relying solely on GDP.
The central test, Dr. Musa said, should ultimately be whether Nigerian households are better off in terms of work, income and dignity.
The paper makes clear that the Jobs and Production Compact is a proposed policy framework, not an established government programme. Its broader argument is that Nigeria’s next economic challenge is to ensure that the gains from stabilisation reach the factory floor, farm, workplace and household.
