REFORM TALKS with Enam Obiosio
The World Bank’s decision to retain Nigeria as a lower-middle-income economy for its 2027 fiscal year classification should not be viewed merely as a statistical outcome. In my view, it should serve as a reminder that Nigeria’s economic journey is far from complete.
Yes, Nigeria has made progress. The country moved from the low-income category before 2010 into the lower-middle-income classification, reflecting years of economic expansion and structural changes. However, after 15 years in the same income category, I believe the bigger question is no longer whether Nigeria has moved forward, but why it has struggled to move faster.
The federal government (FG) must now shift the focus from economic survival to economic transformation. The priority should be moving Nigeria from a country with middle-income classification on paper to one where citizens experience higher incomes, better opportunities and improved living standards.
Income classification provides useful information about the size and direction of an economy, but it does not tell the full story of citizens’ economic reality. A country can record impressive gross domestic product (GDP) figures and still have millions of people struggling with rising costs, limited employment opportunities and declining purchasing power.
This is Nigeria’s current challenge.
The World Bank’s classification places Nigeria among economies with a gross national income per capita between $1,176 and $4,635. While this represents progress compared with Nigeria’s previous low-income status, it also highlights the distance the country must travel before joining the ranks of upper-middle-income economies.
In my assessment, Nigeria’s greatest economic challenge is not the absence of resources. It is the inability to consistently convert those resources into higher productivity, competitive industries, quality jobs and improved incomes.
Nigeria has many advantages that should position it for faster economic advancement. The country has a large consumer market, abundant natural resources, a youthful population, entrepreneurial citizens and significant opportunities across agriculture, technology, manufacturing and services.
However, resources and potential do not automatically create prosperity.
Countries that have successfully moved from lower-income categories did so by building productive economies. They invested heavily in human capital, developed industries, created competitive export sectors and established systems that enabled businesses to grow.
Nigeria must now pursue a similar path.
I believe the next phase of government reforms should place productivity at the centre of economic policy. Macroeconomic stability is important, but stability alone cannot deliver prosperity. The country must build an economy that produces more, exports more and creates more opportunities for its people.
The FG’s ongoing reforms, including changes in foreign exchange management, fiscal adjustments and efforts to improve the investment climate, are necessary steps. However, the real measure of success will not be found only in policy documents or international assessments.
The true test will be whether Nigerian businesses can expand, whether investors can operate with confidence, whether young Nigerians can access meaningful employment and whether households can enjoy improved economic security.
This is where government attention must deepen.
Nigeria cannot become a prosperous economy while manufacturers continue to struggle with unreliable electricity, expensive logistics, limited access to finance and high production costs. The government must accelerate reforms that reduce the cost of doing business and enable local industries to compete globally.
The manufacturing sector, in particular, must receive stronger policy attention. A country with Nigeria’s population cannot rely heavily on imports while its industrial base remains underdeveloped. Industrial growth creates jobs, strengthens local supply chains and improves export capacity.
Agriculture also requires a transformation beyond subsistence production. Nigeria must move from farming for survival to building a modern agricultural economy driven by technology, processing and value addition. The country loses significant economic opportunities when raw agricultural products are exported or consumed without developing the industries around them.
I also believe that human capital development must become a central pillar of Nigeria’s economic strategy.
A youthful population is only an advantage when young people have the skills required by the modern economy. Investments in education, technology, vocational training and entrepreneurship must be linked to actual economic opportunities.
The FG’s digital skills initiatives and technology programmes are important, but they must be integrated into a broader employment and industrial strategy that ensures skills translate into productive jobs.
Another area requiring attention is investment quality. Nigeria needs foreign and domestic investments, but the focus should not only be on attracting capital. The priority should be attracting investments that create jobs, strengthen local capacity, develop industries and contribute to long-term economic competitiveness.
A prosperous Nigeria cannot be built on consumption-driven growth alone. It must be built on production.
The World Bank’s classification also provides an opportunity to examine Nigeria’s relationship with population growth. The country’s large population is often described as an economic advantage, and rightly so. However, population becomes an economic strength only when supported by productivity, skills, infrastructure and employment opportunities.
Without these foundations, population growth can increase pressure on resources and deepen economic challenges.
This is why the government must focus on creating an economy where citizens are not merely consumers but active participants in production and wealth creation.
The ambition to build a $1 trillion economy requires a fundamental shift in thinking. Nigeria cannot achieve that target simply through economic expansion. It must achieve it through higher productivity, stronger institutions, innovation and inclusive growth.
In my view, Nigeria’s retention as a lower-middle-income economy should be treated as both recognition of progress and a call for renewed action. It confirms that reforms can move the country forward, but it also shows that the pace of transformation must increase.
The government must now pursue policies that will move Nigeria beyond classification and into genuine prosperity.
The ultimate measure of economic success is not the category assigned by international institutions. It is whether Nigerians can afford better lives, whether businesses can thrive and whether future generations inherit a stronger economy.
The World Bank label tells us where Nigeria currently stands. The responsibility before government is to build the economy that takes the country where it needs to go.
