By Kingsley Benson
Nigeria’s economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are beginning to produce measurable changes after an initial period of severe adjustment, according to an internal assessment by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
The report describes the economy as having moved “decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing”, following reforms that initially imposed significant pressures on households and businesses.
According to the NRS, the Tinubu administration inherited four major distortions: an unsustainable fuel subsidy system, an opaque foreign exchange regime, a poorly performing oil sector and a tax base significantly below its potential.
The reforms that followed, including changes to fuel pricing, foreign exchange management, taxation and the petroleum sector, generated substantial economic disruption. The revenue service now argues that several indicators are beginning to show the effects of the adjustment.
Economic growth, according to the report, increased from 2.74 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in the first half of 2026. External reserves rose from US$3.99 billion in 2023 to US$51.9 billion by July 2026, while the balance of payments moved from a US$3.34 billion deficit to a US$2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s trade position also strengthened, moving from a marginal N44.7 billion surplus to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
Capital inflows recorded another significant change. Annual capital importation increased from US$3.9 billion in 2023 to US$23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached US$10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
The petroleum sector has also become central to the recovery narrative. Oil production reportedly increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, equivalent to 104 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The report also credits the naira-for-crude arrangement involving Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria move towards becoming a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of dependence on imports.
The capital market has reflected the changing environment. Market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange reportedly rose from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026, which the NRS attributed partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and increasing domestic institutional investment.
Tax administration has undergone an equally substantial transformation. Collections more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026. The NRS attributed the increase to digitisation, four new tax reform laws, institutional restructuring and measures aimed at closing revenue leakages.
The reforms have also extended into energy and agriculture.
More than 100,000 vehicles had reportedly been converted to compressed natural gas by 2026, with over US$2 billion in investment mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created.
Federal agricultural allocation increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget, alongside measures involving grain reserves, fertiliser distribution, mechanisation and the N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund.
The report cited a roughly 50 percent decline in food prices by March 2026, while acknowledging that agricultural policies would require several planting seasons before their full effect could be reflected in output.
The debt position provides another indication of the changing fiscal picture. Although public debt increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 percent to 35.5 percent in 2025 and 32.3 percent in 2026. Debt servicing as a share of revenue also fell from 68 percent to an International Monetary Fund-projected 53 percent.
The NRS assessment presents these developments as evidence that reforms which initially generated considerable economic pain are gradually producing greater macroeconomic stability.
The more important question now is whether the improvements can be sustained and translated into stronger household welfare, productive investment, employment and living standards.
For Nigeria, the recovery story will ultimately be judged not only by reserves, tax receipts, oil output or market capitalisation, but by whether greater stability creates a more productive economy capable of delivering broader prosperity.
