By Kingsley Benson
Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators are beginning to reflect gradual stabilisation and recovery based on reforms under the federal government’s Renewed Hope Agenda, with improvements recorded across growth, inflation moderation, foreign trade performance, and sectoral productivity, according to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The latest economic performance summary by the NBS presents an economy that is gradually consolidating gains after the severe disruptions triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent structural pressures linked to inflation, exchange rate volatility, energy costs, and global supply chain instability.
A major highlight of the report is the successful rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, an exercise designed to align national economic measurements with current production realities, evolving consumption patterns, and emerging sectors within the economy. The rebasing adopted 2019 as the new base year and significantly revised the estimated size of the economy upward to N204.34 trillion from the previously recorded N144.21 trillion.
Although the economy experienced a sharp contraction of -6.96 percent in 2020 during the peak of the pandemic, the report indicates that Nigeria has steadily returned to a growth trajectory. GDP growth recovered to 0.95 percent in 2021 before strengthening further to 4.32 percent in 2022 and 3.04 percent in 2023.
The recovery momentum continued into the Renewed Hope policy period, with the economy recording growth rates of 3.38 percent in 2024 and 3.87 percent in 2025, while GDP value rose to N221.55 trillion.
The report suggests that the improving growth trend is increasingly being supported by stronger sectoral performance beyond crude oil alone. Oil sector growth rose from 5.54 percent in 2024 to 8.50 percent in 2025, while agriculture expanded by 2.92 percent and industrial sector growth accelerated to 4.57 percent during the same period.
The sectoral improvements reinforce government efforts aimed at broadening economic productivity and strengthening non-oil contributions to national output.
Another major policy achievement reflected in the report is the moderation of inflationary pressures after prolonged periods of elevated price instability. Following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2025 to reflect current household consumption realities, headline inflation reportedly declined from 27.61 percent in January 2025 to 15.10 percent in January 2026 before moderating slightly to 15.06 percent and edging up marginally to 15.38 percent in March 2026.
Food inflation, historically one of Nigeria’s most politically and economically sensitive indicators, also recorded substantial moderation. According to the report, food inflation declined from 35.41 percent in January 2024 to 14.31 percent by March 2026, while average food inflation also dropped significantly over the review period.
Core inflation trends similarly point to easing underlying price pressures within the broader economy.
The trade sector also emerged as one of the strongest pillars of the country’s recent macroeconomic performance. Nigeria has maintained positive trade balances since 2022, with the surplus strengthening steadily over the years. Total trade rose from N39.75 trillion in 2021 to N152.47 trillion in 2025, while trade surplus improved from a deficit position in 2021 to N17.78 trillion in 2025.
Particularly significant is the gradual diversification of Nigeria’s export structure. The report showed that oil exports accounted for 78.74 percent of total exports in 2022 but declined to 55.72 percent in 2025, indicating a steady expansion of non-oil export contributions and reduced dependence on crude oil earnings.
The data further highlights Nigeria’s expanding global trade relationships, with major export destinations including India, Spain, the Netherlands, France, and the United States, while China, the United States, India, the Netherlands, and Belgium ranked among the country’s leading import partners in 2025.
Taken together, the figures suggest that recent economic reforms are beginning to produce measurable macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in stabilising inflation, strengthening trade balances, improving productive sector growth, and expanding the country’s economic base.
While structural challenges remain, including energy costs, unemployment pressures, infrastructure gaps, and exchange rate sensitivities, the broader economic indicators increasingly point to an economy gradually repositioning itself towards medium-term stability and stronger productive resilience under the ongoing reform framework.
