REFORM TALKS woth Lawal Zakari
Nigeria is experiencing a significant wave of public sector reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. Since taking office in May 2023, the government has implemented sweeping economic and institutional changes aimed at stabilizing the economy and improving governance. However, despite notable macroeconomic improvements, a troubling paradox has emerged: while policy reforms show success on paper, millions of citizens continue to experience worsened living conditions, eroded purchasing power, and deepening inequality.
This disconnect between policy success and citizen welfare highlights a fundamental challenge that has plagued Nigeria for decades: the implementation deficit. Understanding and addressing this gap is crucial for maximizing the impact of ongoing reforms and ensuring that policy intentions translate into tangible improvements in citizens’ lives.
Current Reform Context and Fiscal Performance
The Tinubu administration’s reform efforts have yielded measurable fiscal improvements. Nigeria recorded a government budget deficit equal to 6.10 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in 2023, while the country recorded a government budget deficit of 3,084.97 NGN Billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. The 2024 Budget titled “Budget of Renewed Hope” shows a proposed expenditure of NGN27.5 trillion and an estimated revenue of NGN18.32 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, representing a significant scaling up of government operations.
Foreign investment flows have also shown improvement, with FDI flows to Nigeria surging to USD 1.87 billion in 2023 compared to USD 895 million the previous year, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2024. This represents more than a doubling of foreign direct investment inflows, indicating growing international confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory.
The government has pursued multiple reform initiatives simultaneously, including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, tax system restructuring, and digitalization of government services. These reforms represent the most comprehensive attempt at economic transformation in recent Nigerian history.
The Evidence of Implementation Gaps
Despite these macroeconomic improvements, the evidence of implementation gaps remains stark. While international organizations have praised Nigeria’s reform efforts, protests erupted across the country in 2024 under the #EndBadGovernance banner, highlighting broader discontent among Nigerians with their governance.
Citizens continue to experience the disconnect between policy announcements and improved service delivery. From healthcare facilities without medicines to schools without teachers, from rural roads that remain impassable despite budget allocations to water projects that exist only in government reports, the pattern of implementation failure persists.
Oil revenues account for a large proportion of government revenues—a figure that stood at 30 percent in 2024, yet citizens in oil-producing communities continue to lack basic infrastructure and services. This exemplifies how revenue generation success does not automatically translate to improved service delivery.
Understanding Implementation Challenges Within Current Reforms
Multiple factors contribute to Nigeria’s persistent implementation challenges, even within the context of comprehensive reform efforts. Having served as Director of Planning at the Ministry of Budget and National Planning from 2010 to 2023, I witnessed firsthand how well-intentioned policies would consistently encounter implementation bottlenecks across different administrations.
Three critical gaps persist even within the current reform wave. First, policies are often designed in Abuja without adequate consultation with states and local governments who must implement them. This top-down approach creates ownership and capacity gaps that undermine even well-funded initiatives.
Second, policymakers chronically underestimate the time and resources needed for effective implementation. The ambitious nature of current reforms, while commendable, may face similar challenges if implementation timelines and resource requirements are not realistically assessed.
Third, monitoring systems continue to focus on inputs—how much was allocated and spent—rather than outcomes—what actually changed in citizens’ lives. This measurement bias creates an illusion of progress while real implementation gaps persist unaddressed.
Weak institutional capacity across all levels of government remains a primary obstacle. Many agencies lack the technical skills, systems, and resources needed to translate policies into effective programs. The civil service has excellent policy analysts but very few experienced project managers equipped with implementation tools like work plans, risk assessments, and stakeholder engagement strategies.
Political incentives also contribute to implementation challenges. The pressure to launch new initiatives often overshadows the less glamorous work of ensuring existing programs function effectively. This creates a cycle where policies are announced and budgets allocated, but follow-through and course correction receive inadequate attention.
A Framework for Implementation Success
Despite these challenges, the current reform momentum presents unprecedented opportunities for addressing Nigeria’s implementation deficit. Drawing from my training at the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) and experience across multiple administrations, several strategic interventions can maximize the impact of ongoing reforms.
Every policy within the current reform agenda should come with what I call an “implementation blueprint”—detailed timelines, resource requirements, institutional responsibilities, and measurable milestones that account for real-world constraints. This approach moves beyond policy design to include implementation architecture from the outset.
Implementation should adopt a phased approach through pilot programs. Instead of launching nationwide programs simultaneously, reforms should be tested in selected states first, lessons learned, and successful models then scaled up. This reduces implementation risks and allows for course correction before full rollout.
Key strategic interventions include strengthening delivery units by establishing dedicated implementation teams within key ministries. These teams should be equipped with project management skills and empowered to cut through bureaucratic obstacles that typically derail well-intentioned programs.
Enhanced coordination mechanisms between federal, state, and local governments are essential. Current reforms must include formal structures for inter-governmental coordination that ensure federal policies can be effectively implemented at state and local levels where citizens actually experience service delivery.
Mr. Lawal Zakari is former Director National Monitoring & Evaluation FMB&EP, CEO Tazaar Management Consultants Ltd.
