By Enam Obiosio
Nigeria is sitting on an economic time bomb disguised as a power problem. Mr. Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, has laid it bare: if electricity supply moves from today’s paltry 4,500 megawatts to at least 8,000MW, our economy could expand to a gross domestic product (GDP) of $357 billion. Yet, decades and billions of dollars later, Nigeria continues to crawl in the dark, with industries, small businesses, and households bearing the crushing costs of inefficiency.
I do understand that Rewane’s submission at the Lagos Business School on September 3 is not mere economic theorizing; it is a blunt diagnosis of why Nigeria is underperforming. The numbers are damning. In 26 years, after spending no less than $30 billion, power generation has only moved by 500MW-from 4,500MW in 1999 to barely 5,000MW in 2025. This is despite having an installed capacity of 13,000MW. Five administrations later, the country is still ranked among the lowest percentile in electricity per capita globally. How can the ‘giant of Africa’ expect to grow when it remains trapped in such energy poverty?
I can also see that what Rewane has recommended is not glamorous, but it is necessary: a bailout. Either Nigeria injects money strategically into its power sector or it prepares for a nationwide blackout with devastating consequences. The debt burden of N4.3 trillion sitting on the balance sheets of GENCOs and DISCOs is choking the sector, discouraging investment, and locking the country in a vicious cycle of poor supply and stunted productivity. To pretend otherwise is to gamble with the nation’s future.
Critics will argue that bailouts are expensive, risky, and prone to abuse-and they are right. But the bigger risk is inaction. Without intervention, GENCOs and DISCOs will collapse. Without power, industries will close. Without industries, jobs will vanish. Without jobs, insecurity and poverty will multiply. A bailout, if well-structured, is not charity; it is an investment into Nigeria’s economic survival.
The federal government must recognize that this is not about subsidies or political optics. It is about building the foundation for growth. The World Bank has consistently shown that a one percent rise in electricity consumption leads to a 0.5–0.6 percent increase in GDP. By raising generation to 8,000MW, Nigeria would unlock productivity, allow firms to retire their expensive generators, free up capital for expansion, and create ripple effects across sectors-from telecoms to agriculture to manufacturing.
Yes, I do understand that the cost of bailouts in the past has been enormous: N213 billion in 2015, N701 billion in 2017, N600 billion in 2020, and nearly N4 trillion in 2025. But what has been missing is accountability and reform. This time, the government must tie every kobo to measurable outcomes: improved generation, reliable distribution, metering, and cost-reflective tariffs. Anything less would be pouring water into a leaking basket.
Nigeria cannot continue to spend billions on palliatives while its factories run on diesel and its citizens live in darkness. For me, the choice is clear: a structured bailout that unlocks 8,000MW and expands GDP, or a nationwide blackout that collapses what is left of the economy. The time for half-measures is over. The federal government must take Rewane’s warning seriously-before the lights go out for good.
